讲座题目：Pessimism, Likelihood Insensitivity, and Economic Activity

时间：2021年3月25日（周四）17:00 – 18:00（线上）

主讲人: Raymond So 伦敦国王学院商学院会计与金融管理副教授，博士生导师。

主讲人简介：Raymond So 伦敦国王学院商学院会计与金融管理副教授，博士生导师。Raymond持有伦敦国王学院金融学博士学位及Cranfield University 金融与管理硕士学位。主要研究领域为实证金融，期权定价及波动率模型。在Journal of Corporate Finance, European Journal of Operational Research, Finance Review and the Annals of Operations Research 等国际期刊发表多篇学术论文。

讲座内容简介：Extending the source method of uncertainty information elicitation to the financial markets, we construct measures of pessimism and likelihood insensitivity from options pricing data and study their effects on economic activity. Results from structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) confirm the negative impact of pessimism and likelihood insensitivity on economic activity. Covering the case of G7 countries, this adverse effect is more pronounced with one standard deviation of shock in pessimism depressing production, trade and employment by up to 7%, 11% and 6%, respectively.

会议方式：腾讯会议

会议号： 581 773 921