讲座题目：Survey Forecasts, Sentiment and Stock Market Volatility （调查预测，情绪和股市波动）

时间：2021年5月25日（周二）14:00 – 15:10 博学918

主讲人: 张仁斌  山东大学经济学院金融系助理教授

主讲人简介：

张仁斌教授于2014年毕业于山东大学经济学院，获金融学学士学位；2020年毕业于巴塞罗那自治大学，获经济学博士士学位。其研究方向主要包括：宏观经济学、宏观金融学和信息经济学，论文曾发表于宏观经济学顶级期刊Journal of Monetary Economics。

讲座内容简介：

This paper documents new evidence that survey forecasts of stock prices are not anchored by forecasts of economic fundamentals in US stock markets. This evidence is at odds with a wide range of asset pricing models with various information assumptions. The paper develops and estimates a stock pricing model with adaptive learning and sentiment shocks, which replicates this evidence, together with a set of equity pricing facts. The model suggests that about two-thirds of the fluctuations of stock price dividend ratios are driven by shifting investors’ expectations as a consequence of the dynamic interaction between the sentiment shocks and investors’ learning behavior.